More than 1.1 million people have been displaced by the drought since January 2021. Almost 98,900 people were displaced by drought In August 2022, an 18 per cent increase compared to July 2022.
Most new arrivals have been observed in Bay Region (29 per cent) and Banadir Region (28 per cent), followed by Bari Region (12 per cent) and Gedo Region (10 per cent). The significant flow of arrivals in Bay is a continued displacement trend that was initially observed in July 2022, when Bay Region received 40 per cent of new arrivals, compared to only 2 per cent in June 2022.
This increase of displacements to, from and within Bay Region is occurring against the backdrop of a projection of famine occurring in two districts of Bay (Baidoa and Burhakaba) between October and December 2022 unless humanitarian assistance is rapidly scaled up2.
With 80 per cent of the new arrivals in Bay Region originating in Bay, most movements were intra-regional; the remaining 20 per cent originated from Bakool Region. Similarly, in Bari Region, 99 per cent of the new arrivals were intra-regional. This is in contrast to Banadir Region, where 81 per cent of the new IDP arrivals were from Lower Shabelle and 11 per cent from Bay Region. In Gedo region, 53 per cent of the movements originated in Bay Region, 23 per cent originated in Bakool Region and 22 per cent were intra-regional.
Countrywide, 33 per cent of the departure movements originated in Bay Region, 23 per cent from Lower Shabelle Region, 12 per cent from Bari Region and 10 per cent from Bakool Region. On average, 56 per cent of the movements were intra-regional.
The data in this snapshot comes from the Protection and Return Monitoring Network (PRMN) and is collected through Key Informant interviews. As a result, the findings should be considered as estimates. The significant increase in movements observed in January 2022 could be related to the interconnectivity between conflict and drought-induced displacement. For example, while data collectors may have identified drought as the primary cause of displacement, conflict was certainly a factor as well.
Source: International Organization for Migration